By Racheal Nagawa
Nigeria’s persistent struggles in education and healthcare are no longer just social concerns—they are becoming a measurable economic liability. A new assessment by the World Bank warns that weak learning outcomes and fragile health systems are steadily eroding the earning potential of the country’s next generation.
According to the report, declining investments in health, education and workforce training across developing economies—Nigeria included—are diminishing the lifetime income prospects of children born today. The institution describes Nigeria’s human capital challenge as a “poly-crisis,” where multiple systemic weaknesses combine to suppress productivity and long-term growth.
The consequences are stark. If Nigeria were able to raise its human capital outcomes to match those of the best-performing countries at similar income levels, children born today could earn up to 51 percent more over their lifetimes, the World Bank estimates.
A System Under Strain
Nigeria’s education, healthcare and broader human capital systems are buckling under pressure from rapid population growth, chronic underfunding, and institutional weaknesses. While the country has one of the largest youth populations in the world—a demographic often described as a potential economic dividend—that potential remains largely untapped.
Instead, Nigeria faces brain drain, crumbling infrastructure, teacher shortages, and declining learning standards. These structural gaps are not only undermining public services but also weakening the country’s economic foundations.
A 2023 report by the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) revealed alarming attrition rates in public schools. In Niger State, nearly half (47.5 percent) of teachers exited the system over a multi-year period, while Bayelsa recorded 14.2 percent attrition. A separate study in Rivers and Anambra states found that burnout and poor working conditions—not lack of commitment—were driving teachers out of classrooms.
The strain is not confined to education. Nigeria’s health sector continues to grapple with underfunding, insufficient medical facilities, and an ongoing exodus of trained professionals seeking better opportunities abroad.
Human Capital and Economic Ambition
Nubi Achebo, director of academic planning at the Nigerian University of Technology and Management (NUTM), says strengthening human capital is essential if Nigeria is to achieve its ambitious target of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
“The education sector suffers from inadequate funding, weak infrastructure and teacher shortages,” Achebo said. “Nigeria’s adult literacy rate stands at about 62 percent. That alone shows how far we are from achieving universal access to quality education.”
He added that similar challenges persist in the health sector, where limited public investment and the migration of medical professionals continue to weaken service delivery.
Achebo argues that addressing these issues requires deliberate policy action. He recommends increased public spending on education and health, improved infrastructure, enhanced training for teachers and healthcare workers, and stronger public-private partnerships.
“Government should align with global benchmarks—UNESCO recommends allocating 15 to 20 percent of total public expenditure to education, while the World Health Organization suggests at least five percent for health,” he said.
He also pointed to the World Bank’s $1.08 billion financing package aimed at supporting Nigeria’s education, nutrition and economic resilience programs as a step in the right direction, though sustained reforms will be necessary to generate lasting impact.
A Global Warning
The World Bank’s broader report, Building Human Capital Where It Matters, paints a worrying global picture. Between 2010 and 2025, 86 out of 129 low- and middle-income countries experienced declines in health, education or workplace learning outcomes.
Mamta Murthi, the World Bank’s Vice President for People, said the prosperity of developing countries hinges on their ability to build and protect human capital.
“Many countries are struggling to improve nutrition, learning and skills of their workforce,” Murthi noted. “This raises concerns about labour productivity and the types of jobs their economies will be able to sustain in the future.”
In many low- and middle-income economies, including Nigeria, about 70 percent of workers remain in small-scale agriculture, low-quality self-employment or micro-enterprises. Without stronger education and health systems, moving workers into higher-productivity sectors becomes increasingly difficult.
Signs of Deterioration
Evidence of human capital erosion is visible in troubling indicators. In several sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, the average adult is reportedly shorter today than 25 years ago—a reflection of worsening childhood nutrition and underlying health challenges.
Learning outcomes have also declined. Across low- and middle-income countries, children are performing worse academically than they were 15 years ago, with sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the sharpest setbacks.
In Nigeria, the crisis begins early. Despite primary education being officially free and compulsory, an estimated 10.5 million children aged 5–14 remain out of school, according to UNICEF. Only 61 percent of children aged 6–11 regularly attend primary school, while just 35.6 percent of children between 36 and 59 months receive early childhood education.
The World Bank’s 140-page study links poor human capital outcomes to a web of interconnected factors—from childhood stunting due to malnutrition to insecurity and the presence of criminal gangs in local communities. These environmental pressures compound systemic weaknesses, limiting children’s ability to learn and thrive.
Rethinking Funding Models
With fiscal pressures mounting and public resources stretched thin, some experts are calling for innovative funding mechanisms.
Friday Erhabor, director of media and strategy at Marklenez Limited, advocates for leveraging the tax system to bolster education funding.
“The government should encourage corporate organizations to channel part of their tax obligations into supporting specific institutions,” Erhabor suggested. “Companies could partner directly with schools or universities to fund infrastructure projects or learning programs.”
Such approaches, he argues, would not only ease the financial burden on government but also strengthen accountability and private sector involvement in human capital development.
The Cost of Inaction
For Nigeria, the stakes are high. With one of the fastest-growing populations globally, the country faces a narrow window to convert demographic growth into economic gain. Without urgent investment in education and healthcare, that window risks closing.
The World Bank’s estimate that children born today could earn 51 percent more with stronger human capital systems is not just a statistic—it represents lost productivity, diminished innovation, and constrained economic expansion.
Improving outcomes in homes, neighbourhoods and workplaces, as the World Bank recommends, will require coordinated reforms, sustained funding and political will. From addressing teacher shortages and upgrading school facilities to strengthening primary healthcare and nutrition programs, the solutions are complex but achievable.
Nigeria’s future prosperity depends not only on oil revenues, infrastructure projects or macroeconomic reforms—but on the health, education and skills of its people. If these foundational systems continue to falter, the country risks undermining its long-term growth ambitions.
Conversely, investing boldly in human capital could unlock higher incomes, stronger productivity and a more resilient economy. The choice, policymakers are increasingly being reminded, is urgent and consequential.
